Sustainability Research + Communication

End-to-End LCA Case Study: Sachet Water vs PET Bottled Water (Lagos)

This page explains the full project in one place: why we did it, how we calculated impacts, what we found, and what decisions it supports.

Cradle-to-grave comparative LCA with functional unit of 1 L consumed, deterministic + uncertainty outputs, sensitivity scenarios, and policy translation outputs.

Case locality: Lagos, Nigeria Functional unit: 1 L consumed Boundary: cradle-to-grave Audience: technical + non-technical

See Results Open Scenario Studio

Who Is This For?

Policymakers and city agencies
Sustainability researchers
NGOs and communication teams
Students and learners

Project Approach (End-to-End)

Transparent + Reproducible Workflow

1. Define

Set goal, audience, functional unit (1 L), and boundaries from raw materials to end-of-life.

2. Collect

Build inventory defaults and uncertainty ranges for packaging, energy, transport, and waste fate.

3. Model

Run deterministic LCA calculations for GWP, water depletion, and cumulative energy demand.

4. Test

Perform sensitivity and Monte Carlo-style uncertainty summaries to test robustness.

5. Translate

Convert outputs into policy and implementation recommendations.

System Boundary

What is included in this study from start to finish.

Foreground + background flows across cradle-to-grave boundary.

Raw material

Packaging production

Filling operations

Transport

Consumption

End-of-life

Core Assumptions (Lagos defaults)

Parameter	Sachet	PET
Packaging mass per FU	6 g/L	24 g/L
Filling energy	0.02 kWh/L	0.02 kWh/L
Transport distance	40 km	40 km
Recycling share	5%	15%
Mismanaged/open-burn share	75%	50%

Results, Tables, and Visual Evidence

Deterministic + Sensitivity + Uncertainty

A. Baseline Comparison

Sachet and PET values per 1 L consumed.

B. Sensitivity & Scenario Outcomes

Scenario	Product	GWP (kg CO2-eq/L)	Interpretation

C. Hotspot Contribution (GWP share)

Where impacts are coming from within each life-cycle stage.

D. Uncertainty Snapshot (Monte Carlo summary)

Bars show mean values; error bars (95th - 5th range) shown as labels below.

Driver shares

Mean GWP contributions (per 1 L)

Sachet

Packaging: 34.9%

Filling energy: 45.3%

Transport: 0.1%

End-of-life: 19.7%

PET bottle

Packaging: 55.6%

Filling energy: 24.3%

Transport: 0.3%

End-of-life: 19.7%

Sensitivity visuals

Sensitivity scenarios: baseline vs scenario

GWP (PET baseline vs 50% recycling)

Water depletion (PET baseline vs 50% recycling)

Cumulative energy (Sachet baseline vs 20% lighter)

Interactive Decision Studio

Live Scenario Dashboard

Move sliders to see what changes policy and design choices can make.

Parametric scenario engine for recycling rate, packaging mass multiplier, and mismanaged sachet share.

PET recycling rate

15%

Packaging mass multiplier

100% of baseline

Sachet mismanaged/open-burn share

75%

Sachet GWP

0.0000

kg CO2-eq/L

PET GWP

0.0000

kg CO2-eq/L

Sachet water + energy

0.0

(L + MJ) per L

PET water + energy

0.0

(L + MJ) per L

Live Comparison

Climate impact is shown separately so low GWP values remain visible.

Climate Impact (GWP)

Water and Energy

What This Means

Climate Winner

Resource Winner

Best Lever

Project Artifacts and Deliverables

All Key Files in This Repository

Use this section as a guided map of the repository for reviewers and collaborators.

Documentation and narrative outputs

README.md - project overview
documentation_full.html - full project documentation
policy_memo.html - policy-focused summary
protocol.md - scope, boundaries, assumptions
bibliography.md - source references

Data and model inputs

inventory_template.csv - LCI defaults + uncertainty
openlca_import_template.csv - import template
openlca_premap.csv - premapping support
openlca_mapping.md - mapping guide
data_sources.md - data strategy

Results and visuals

Automation scripts

scripts/run_lcia.py - LCIA execution
scripts/montecarlo.py - uncertainty analysis
scripts/brightway_prepare.py - prep utilities
scripts/README.md - script usage notes

Use Cases and Practical Application

Policy Design

Prioritize recycling systems and packaging standards with quantified impact signals.

Producer Strategy

Identify high-impact levers: lightweighting, recycled content, and end-of-life collection.

Grant/Funder Communication

Show transparent methods, uncertainty ranges, and actionable outcomes in one narrative.

Public Education

Translate technical lifecycle results into understandable trade-offs and choices.

Glossary and Acronyms

Term	Full Meaning	Simple Explanation
LCA	Life Cycle Assessment	A method to measure environmental impacts from start to end of a product life.
LCI	Life Cycle Inventory	The input data used in an LCA model (materials, energy, transport, waste).
LCIA	Life Cycle Impact Assessment	The step converting inventory data into impact indicators.
GWP	Global Warming Potential	Climate impact indicator, usually in kg CO2-equivalent.
FU	Functional Unit	The common basis of comparison (here: 1 liter consumed).
MJ	Megajoule	A unit of energy.

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